Global Temperatures Expected to Stay Near Record Highs Over Next Five Years, WMO Says
NEW DELHI — Global temperatures are likely to remain at or near record highs over the next five years, with the Arctic continuing to warm faster than the global average, according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization.
The report, produced by the U.K. Met Office, said annual global mean near-surface temperatures from 2026 to 2030 are expected to range between 1.3 degrees Celsius and 1.9 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.
The WMO said there is an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record. It also said there is a 91% chance that the global mean near-surface temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels for at least one year during that period.
The report noted that while the five-year average is likely to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, that would not amount to a breach of the Paris Agreement. The agreement’s temperature goals refer to long-term warming, typically measured over about 20 years.
Global temperatures temporarily exceeded the 1.5-degree threshold in 2024, when the average surface temperature was about 1.55 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline.
“There is an El Nino predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year,” said Dr. Leon Hermanson, lead author of the report.
The five-year forecast for the central tropical Pacific, known as the Nino 3.4 region, indicates a tendency toward El Nino conditions, particularly in 2027 and 2028.
Under the Paris Agreement, countries agreed to keep the increase in long-term global average surface temperature well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Scientists have repeatedly warned that warming beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius would increase the risk of more severe climate impacts and extreme weather while reducing options for adaptation. (Source: IANS)
