New Delhi– Cuts to U.S. foreign aid, initiated during the administration of former President Donald Trump, could result in more than 14 million preventable deaths globally by 2030 — including over 4.5 million children under the age of five — according to a new study published Tuesday in The Lancet.
The research estimates that development programs funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) prevented approximately 91 million deaths between 2001 and 2021 in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Of these, around 30 million were among children.
USAID, the world’s largest provider of humanitarian and development assistance, was linked to a 15% reduction in overall mortality and a 32% decrease in deaths among children under five in countries that received substantial support.
However, the study warns that recent and ongoing U.S. aid cuts could jeopardize these historic gains.
According to the study, 83% of USAID programs were terminated during the Trump administration — a move confirmed in March by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The potential consequences of these cuts are dire.
“Our projections indicate that these cuts could lead to a sharp increase in preventable deaths, particularly in the world’s most fragile nations,” said Dr. Davide Rasella, ICREA Research Professor at the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) in Spain. “They risk abruptly halting — and even reversing — two decades of health progress among vulnerable populations. For many low- and middle-income countries, the shock would be on par with a global pandemic or large-scale conflict.”
The study analyzed data from 133 countries, combining retrospective evaluation from 2001 to 2021 with forecasting models projecting health outcomes through 2030.
Countries that received high levels of USAID support saw especially dramatic reductions in mortality from major diseases. Mortality from HIV/AIDS fell by 74%, malaria by 53%, and neglected tropical diseases by 51%, compared to nations that received little or no U.S. aid.
There were also significant declines in deaths caused by tuberculosis, nutritional deficiencies, diarrheal diseases, lower respiratory infections, and maternal and perinatal conditions.
If funding cuts continue, researchers estimate that an additional 14 million preventable deaths could occur by the end of the decade — including approximately 700,000 additional child deaths each year. (Source: IANS)
