Beijing– A new study by Chinese scientists warns that the Tibetan Plateau is likely to experience accelerated warming over the next decade, according to the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) under the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
While traditional climate models are effective at identifying long-term trends, predicting short-term temperature changes in the region has remained difficult due to significant internal climate variability. However, the latest study employs decadal climate prediction—a method that integrates the current state of the climate system with external influences—to improve the accuracy of regional forecasts.
Researchers from the IAP analyzed international decadal prediction models to evaluate temperature trends on the Tibetan Plateau. Their findings indicate that the annual mean temperature across the region is projected to rise by 0.98 degrees Celsius between 2025 and 2032, compared to the 1991–2020 baseline. This rate of warming is 1.75 times faster than the observed increase from 2016 to 2023.
Using the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), the team also simulated the effects of this warming on glacier mass in the region. Their analysis projects a 1.4 percent loss in glacier volume, which could significantly accelerate melt rates and threaten water security for hundreds of millions of people across Asia, according to Xinhua news agency. The researchers warn that such rapid glacial retreat could destabilize local ecosystems and have broader climatic repercussions.
The study emphasizes that temperature predictability on the Tibetan Plateau is shaped not only by external drivers like greenhouse gas emissions but also by internal climate factors, particularly the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO).
The findings were published in the journal Science Bulletin. (Source: IANS)
