Mumbai– India is on the verge of finalizing a comprehensive Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) with the United States that could pave the way for zero-duty imports under the country’s production-linked incentive (PLI) schemes and significantly boost bilateral trade, according to a new report released Monday.
The development comes as U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance arrives in India for a four-day diplomatic visit, signaling deepening economic and strategic cooperation between the two nations. The report, published by Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates Ltd (ACMIIL), a Pantomath Group company, projects that the BTA could help bilateral trade reach $500 billion by 2030.
In addition to lowering import duties, the proposed agreement is expected to open doors for high-end U.S. technology imports in key sectors such as defense, clean energy, and advanced manufacturing.
Despite global economic uncertainties, India’s domestic consumption-driven growth, youthful population, and relatively low reliance on exports position it favorably compared to other major economies. Currently, India’s merchandise exports to the U.S. account for just 2.1% of its GDP, making it less susceptible to external shocks.
The report highlights India’s potential to emerge as a key beneficiary of global supply chain realignment, particularly as the U.S. continues to impose steep tariffs on Chinese goods. India’s reciprocal 26% tariff is considered moderate in comparison, enhancing the country’s appeal as a manufacturing and trade partner.
India’s macroeconomic outlook remains robust, with GDP growth projected at 6.5% for fiscal year 2025–26. The fiscal deficit is expected to narrow to 4.9% in FY25, underscoring the government’s focus on fiscal discipline. The Reserve Bank of India has also adopted a more accommodative monetary policy, with anticipated repo rate cuts aimed at spurring private sector investment.
Demographics continue to be one of India’s strongest structural advantages, with 51% of the population under the age of 40. Gen Z and millennials are emerging as the primary drivers of consumption, fueling growth across various sectors.
From a market perspective, technical and valuation indicators suggest that equity markets are bottoming out, creating favorable conditions for medium- to long-term investment gains.
The report also credits ongoing government initiatives like ‘Make in India’ and the push for ease of doing business as key contributors to India’s improved trade and investment climate. These policies are expected to support the manufacturing, technology, and services sectors as India positions itself as a global economic powerhouse. (Source: IANS)
