New Delhi– The United States may be on the verge of a major measles resurgence as vaccination rates continue to decline across several states, according to a new study.
Researchers from Stanford University, Baylor College of Medicine, Rice University, and the University of Texas used a simulation model to assess how vaccine-preventable infectious diseases, including measles, could spread across the 50 states, Xinhua news agency reported.
The model analyzed various vaccination scenarios over a 25-year period.
At current vaccination levels, the study projects that measles could regain endemic status in the U.S., potentially causing approximately 851,300 cases over the next 25 years. The findings were published in the Journal of the American Medical Association.
If vaccination rates were to fall by 10 percent, the study estimates measles cases could surge to 11.1 million during the same period. A more severe 50 percent drop in vaccination rates could lead to 51.2 million measles cases, along with 9.9 million rubella cases, 4.3 million cases of poliomyelitis, 197 diphtheria cases, 10.3 million hospitalizations, and 159,200 deaths.
The study comes as the U.S. faces a steady decline in vaccination rates, a trend that began during the COVID-19 pandemic. Factors contributing to this decline include increased use of personal belief exemptions, misinformation, public distrust, and ongoing policy debates over childhood vaccine schedules.
This rise in vaccine hesitancy has coincided with a growing number of outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases. Since 2024, the country has seen an uptick in measles outbreaks, including a major outbreak in West Texas, which has led to significant pediatric hospitalizations.
The researchers emphasized that maintaining high vaccination coverage is critical to preventing a resurgence of diseases once thought eliminated.
“At current state-level vaccination rates, measles may become endemic again; increasing vaccine coverage would prevent this,” the researchers noted.
They warned that “declining childhood vaccination rates will increase the frequency and size of outbreaks of previously eliminated vaccine-preventable infections, eventually leading to their return to endemic levels.” (Source: IANS)
