New Delhi– India’s decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan marks a significant escalation in its strategic approach toward its western neighbor, leveraging water resources as a tool of geopolitical pressure. Citing ongoing cross-border terrorism and repeated violations of treaty protocols, Indian officials and experts have defended the move as both morally justified and legally sound.
The suspension, approved by the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) following Tuesday’s deadly terrorist attack in Pahalgam, which killed 26 people, underscores India’s assertion of its sovereign right to protect national interests. Analysts say the action signals that India, while historically committed to honoring international agreements, will no longer tolerate breaches by what it describes as a “rogue state” like Pakistan.
“This step sends a clear message: India will not be taken for granted when the other party repeatedly undermines the spirit and terms of the agreement,” one analyst commented.
The Indus Waters Treaty and Its Suspension
The IWT, signed in 1960, governs the allocation of water from six rivers. India controls the Ravi, Sutlej, and Beas rivers, which provide around 33 million acre-feet (MAF) of water annually, while Pakistan controls the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers, receiving approximately 135 MAF. The treaty allows India limited usage rights on the western rivers for domestic, agricultural, and non-consumptive purposes.
India served a formal notice to Pakistan last August, seeking a review and modification of the treaty, citing “fundamental and unforeseen changes in circumstances,” including demographic shifts, environmental concerns, the need to accelerate clean energy development, and the persistent issue of cross-border terrorism.
Despite repeated warnings, Pakistan continued violating treaty protocols, culminating in the current suspension, which was further triggered by the recent terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir.
Pakistan’s Treaty Violations
The most serious breach occurred in 2016 when Pakistan unilaterally bypassed the treaty’s structured dispute resolution mechanism outlined in Article IX, which mandates escalation from technical discussions to neutral expert adjudication, and, if necessary, to a Court of Arbitration.
Initially, Pakistan requested a neutral expert to examine objections to India’s Kishanganga and Ratle hydroelectric projects but later abandoned that request and directly approached the Court of Arbitration, sidestepping agreed procedures. This move was seen as a deliberate attempt to weaponize legal mechanisms for political gain.
In response, India issued a formal notice in January 2023 to amend the treaty to prevent future exploitation of the dispute resolution process.
Historically, Pakistan has invoked the treaty’s provisions three times, not always in good faith. For example, in 2005, Pakistan objected to a hydropower project on the Chenab River, claiming it would give India control over river flows. However, a World Bank-appointed neutral expert ruled in India’s favor in 2007, confirming that the project’s design met international standards.
India’s Hydropower Projects and Strategic Leverage
India has already taken steps to assert control over water flows from the western rivers through several hydroelectric and irrigation projects:
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Kishanganga Hydroelectric Project: Commissioned in 2018, it diverts water from the Kishanganga River to a power plant in the Jhelum basin via a 23-kilometer tunnel.
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Ratle Hydroelectric Project: Revived in 2021 with a capacity of 850 MW on the Chenab River, despite Pakistan’s objections.
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Tulbul Navigation Project: A planned structure on the Jhelum River to regulate water flow, shelved after the 2016 Uri attack but never abandoned.
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Shahpurkandi Dam: Completed in early 2024, this dam on the Ravi River prevents surplus water from flowing into Pakistan, enhancing India’s irrigation and power generation.
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Ujh Multipurpose Project: Currently in planning, this project on a tributary of the Ravi River aims to store water, support irrigation, and generate hydropower.
These initiatives indicate that while the IWT suspension may be temporary, India is systematically increasing pressure on Pakistan by asserting control over river flows.
Potential Impact on Pakistan
Pakistan heavily depends on the Indus River system, with nearly 80 percent of its cultivated land—about 16 million hectares—relying on these waters for irrigation. Agriculture contributes roughly 23 percent to Pakistan’s economy and supports nearly 68 percent of its rural population. A reduction in water availability could lead to lower crop yields, food shortages, and heightened economic instability.
Pakistan’s water storage capacity is also limited, with its major dams—Mangla and Tarbela—holding only about 14.4 MAF, roughly 10 percent of its annual water entitlement under the treaty. The suspension of the IWT heightens these vulnerabilities by threatening a reliable water supply.
The move could also affect Pakistan’s hydropower generation, a critical component of its energy infrastructure, exacerbating the country’s economic and power crises.
Strategic Implications
India’s suspension of the IWT, combined with its expanding hydroelectric projects, reflects a broader strategy to leverage its control over critical water resources as a means to exert pressure on Pakistan. This development carries significant geopolitical implications, particularly for Pakistan’s agricultural sector, food security, and energy supply.
As tensions rise, experts warn that the diplomatic fallout from this move could reshape regional dynamics, with water emerging as a key strategic asset in India’s foreign policy toolkit. (Source: IANS)
