OTTAWA — Canadians headed to the polls Monday in a high-stakes federal election held under the looming shadow of U.S. President Donald Trump’s escalating trade disputes and annexation threats, with global tensions influencing domestic politics.
The ruling Liberal Party, which ousted former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau earlier this year, has seen its support surge in recent weeks, narrowing the gap with the opposition Conservatives. According to an aggregate of polls compiled by the government-subsidized Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC), the Liberals are polling at 42.8%, just ahead of the Conservatives at 39.2%. The New Democratic Party (NDP) trails significantly at 8.1%.
At the start of the year, when Trudeau was still in office, the Liberals lagged behind the Conservatives by as much as 23 percentage points, a reflection of voter dissatisfaction. However, Trump’s aggressive tariff policies and geopolitical posturing appear to have shifted the political landscape, rallying support behind the Liberals, now led by Mark Carney.
Despite the slim margin in polling percentages, seat projections in the 338-member House of Commons show the Liberals with a commanding lead, expected to secure around 180 seats compared to the Conservatives’ 125, according to CBC estimates. The election requires 170 seats for a majority.
Of Canada’s more than 28 million registered voters, approximately 7.3 million had already cast their ballots during early voting by last Monday. Official results are expected to begin rolling in Monday night, with final tallies likely available by Tuesday.
The NDP, led by Jagmeet Singh, is facing a dramatic decline. Once a pivotal player in the previous parliament with 24 seats, the party now risks near irrelevance, projected to win fewer than 10 seats. Singh, accused by critics of sympathizing with the Khalistan separatist movement, has seen his party’s support erode from 17.4% in January to just over 8% amid growing polarization sparked by Trump’s rhetoric.
Under Trudeau, relations between Canada and India became strained, in part due to his perceived leniency toward Khalistani activists and his political alliance with Singh. However, Carney, a former central banker for both Canada and the United Kingdom, has signaled a desire to reset ties with New Delhi.
“It’s an incredibly important relationship, the Canada-India relationship, on many levels,” Carney said over the weekend, emphasizing the economic opportunities. “At this point, where the global economy and system are being reshaped, countries like Canada and India can play an outsized role in building an open, shared economy and fostering collaboration.”
Carney’s economic leadership during past financial crises positions him as a steady hand to confront Trump’s protectionist policies, including recent tariff hikes on Canadian goods and inflammatory suggestions about annexing Canada.
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, who surged in popularity during the waning days of Trudeau’s tenure, has struggled to maintain momentum. His policies, viewed by some as echoing Trump’s, faced backlash following the U.S. president’s latest trade salvos. Poilievre has consistently criticized Trudeau’s foreign policy, particularly the deterioration of Canada-India relations.
“He is so incompetent and unprofessional that now we are in disputes with almost every major power in the world, including India,” Poilievre charged during the campaign.
In an attempt to discredit Poilievre, allegations surfaced during the race suggesting Indian interference in the 2022 Conservative Party leadership contest to benefit him. Poilievre dismissed the claims, calling them baseless and affirming he won the leadership “fair and square.”
Canada338, a polling and projection outlet, forecasts the Liberals securing 186 seats, the Conservatives 124, and the NDP just 9. CBC’s projections are slightly higher for the Liberals at 189 seats, with 125 for the Conservatives and five for the NDP.
As Canadians await final results, the election’s outcome is expected to shape not only the country’s domestic policy but also its position in a rapidly evolving global landscape. (Source: IANS)
