NEW DELHI — Apple is on track to surpass Samsung in global smartphone shipments in 2025, marking its first return to the top position in 14 years, according to new data released Wednesday by Counterpoint Research.
The research firm said Apple’s shipments have remained strong throughout 2025, with an especially robust performance in the third quarter. The company is projected to capture a 19.4 percent global market share next year, edging past Samsung’s expected 18.7 percent. Although Samsung is forecast to grow its shipments by 4.6 percent year-over-year, it is still set to lose the leadership position it has held for more than a decade.
Apple posted a 9 percent year-over-year increase in Q3 2025 iPhone shipments, exceeding market expectations. The launch of the iPhone 17 lineup, including the debut of the new iPhone Air replacing the previous Plus model, contributed to the momentum. Adjustments in memory options and pricing tiers also appear to have boosted demand.
Global smartphone shipments overall are expected to rise 3.3 percent in 2025.
Yang Wang, senior analyst at Counterpoint, said much of Apple’s momentum is driven by the maturing replacement cycle. “Beyond the highly positive market reception for the iPhone 17 series, the key driver behind the upgraded shipment outlook lies in the replacement cycle reaching its inflection point. Consumers who purchased smartphones during the COVID-19 boom are now entering their upgrade phase,” he said.
Counterpoint noted that 358 million second-hand iPhones were sold between 2023 and Q2 2025. Many of those users are expected to upgrade to new iPhones over the coming years, creating an additional surge in replacement demand.
According to the firm’s weekly sell-through tracker, sales of the iPhone 17 series in the United States — including the iPhone Air — were 12 percent higher during the first four weeks after launch compared to the iPhone 16 series, excluding the iPhone 16e.
Apple has also benefited from eased global tariff pressures and a period of relative calm in the U.S.–China trade and technology dispute. Those developments supported Apple’s supply chain planning, its ongoing manufacturing diversification, and demand in key emerging markets.
“Appreciating domestic currencies versus the US dollar and a resilient economic outlook boosted consumer confidence. With these structural tailwinds, Apple is well-positioned to surpass Samsung in annual shipments in 2025,” Counterpoint said.
Samsung is still expected to post solid shipment growth of roughly 5 percent next year, supported by a supply chain that has largely absorbed tariff-related challenges. (Source: IANS)
