NEW DELHI, India — The Indian rupee is expected to trade with a depreciating bias through December, with the USD/INR exchange rate likely to remain in the 89–90 range, according to a report released Monday.
The Bank of Baroda report said that progress on a U.S.–India trade deal will be the primary catalyst for any sharp movement in the rupee, either upward or downward.
Domestically, the bank does not expect the Reserve Bank of India to cut rates at the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee meeting. It added that markets have already priced in a potential interest-rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve, and the dollar is expected to stay range-bound unless the Fed delivers an unexpected decision.
Because the rate differential between the two countries is likely to remain intact, neither the Fed’s decision nor the RBI’s policy outcome is expected to have a major impact on the currency, the bank said.
The rupee weakened 0.8 percent in November 2025, closing at 89.46 despite stronger-than-expected GDP numbers. The report noted that the rupee’s softness was more striking given that the U.S. dollar weakened over the same period.
India’s July–September GDP growth reached 8.2 percent year-over-year, exceeding the previous quarter’s 7.8 percent and economists’ expectations of 7.5 percent. GVA growth came in at 8.1 percent, while nominal GDP expanded 8.7 percent.
Crisil Limited revised its forecast for India’s full-year GDP growth to 7 percent, up from its earlier estimate of 6.5 percent.
Financial markets have adjusted their expectations for monetary easing, with CME FedWatch data showing nearly a 90 percent probability of a U.S. rate cut in December. (Source: IANS)
