WASHINGTON– A panel of prominent American foreign-policy experts warned Wednesday that the United States and India are experiencing one of the most fragile phases in their relationship in nearly a quarter century, with political mistrust, stalled trade negotiations and mounting geopolitical pressures straining what has long been considered a key strategic partnership in the Indo-Pacific.
Speaking at a discussion hosted by the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), Richard Fontaine noted that both U.S. political parties and successive Indian governments have spent the last 25 years working to transform bilateral ties. That effort, he said, was widely seen as essential to addressing China’s rise and maintaining security across the Indo-Pacific.
“But we’re in a different place now,” Fontaine said, pointing to hardened rhetoric, unresolved trade disputes and a growing sentiment in Washington that the relationship “is in the lowest point in the past 25 years.”
Curtis: ‘Worst shape in almost 25 years’
Lisa Curtis, Senior Fellow and Director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program at CNAS and a former senior official in the first Trump administration, offered the bluntest assessment. “The US-India relationship is probably in the worst shape it’s been in almost 25 years,” she said.
Curtis argued the downturn feels sharper because expectations had been unusually high. She cited former President Trump’s February 2020 visit to India, the “Howdy Modi” event in 2019, and U.S. support during India’s border standoff with China as moments when ties were “at an all-time high.”
Instead, she said, the relationship has deteriorated amid steep tariff hikes, “degrading and insulting social media posts” from senior officials, and the White House decision to invite Pakistan Army Chief Gen. Asim Munir to the Oval Office just weeks after a major terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir. “It really is disappointing to see how far this relationship has deteriorated,” Curtis said.
Curtis added that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s decision to host Russian President Vladimir Putin this week would be viewed in Washington as “bad timing,” though predictable given U.S. pressure on India. “India values its strategic autonomy,” she said, adding that New Delhi is making clear “it’s not going to be bullied by the United States.”
‘Nothing easy or natural’ about the partnership
Lindsey Ford, Senior Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation America and former Senior Director for South Asia at the White House, agreed with the broader assessment. She said the current downturn reflects the lack of strong political champions for the relationship on both sides.
“There is nothing easy or natural about how we got to where we are,” Ford said, rejecting the frequently used term “natural allies.” The partnership, she argued, has relied on sustained political attention from top leaders — attention that is now lacking. “At present, it’s unclear who the high-level champions are” in either capital, she said.
Ford stressed that the strategic logic for rebuilding trust remains unchanged. “If you believe that the rise of China presents a generational challenge to U.S. security and prosperity… a closer US-India relationship is essential,” she said. A stable Indo-Pacific, she added, is impossible “if you do not have a strong India that is more aligned with the United States.”
India’s diversification and the Russia factor
Tanvi Madan, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, underscored that India’s engagement with Russia and China reflects a longstanding strategy to diversify partnerships, not a major strategic shift.
India, she said, seeks “security, prosperity, status, but also autonomy,” and has maintained a “diversified portfolio of partners” across the West, Asia and Eurasia for decades.
Madan said Putin’s visit must be viewed in context. India’s outreach to Japan, Australia, South Korea and Europe has been “far more substantive,” she said, and New Delhi’s push for Moscow to buy more Indian goods stems from a widening trade imbalance that is now India’s second largest after China. “There are real limits to the Russia-India relationship,” she added, citing Moscow’s close ties with China and Pakistan.
Despite political friction, she noted, “functional cooperation is continuing,” pointing to ongoing defense exercises and technology engagements. The moment, she said, illustrates both “how fragile the relationship is” and “how resilient it still is.” (Source: IANS)
