New Delhi–India is poised to emerge as a $26 trillion economy by 2047–48, even while sustaining a stable and moderate average growth rate of around 6 per cent per annum, according to a report released by Ernst and Young (EY). The report projects that India’s per capita income will exceed $15,000, nearly six times its current level.
The EY report identifies several structural and policy-driven enablers that strengthen India’s long-term growth outlook and reinforce its position in the global economy. On the current trajectory, India is expected to overtake Germany and Japan and become the third-largest economy globally by 2030, behind only the United States and China.
India has already achieved critical mass as the world’s fifth-largest economy, largely due to decades of economic liberalisation that increased market orientation, expanded the role of private capital, and enhanced global competitiveness. The report notes that India’s growth projections remain the highest among major economies over the coming decades.
A key pillar of this expansion has been India’s services sector. Services exports have grown at an annual rate of 14 per cent over the past two decades, reaching $254.5 billion in 2021–22. Information Technology (IT) services and Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) accounted for $157 billion of this total, driven by both Indian-headquartered firms and global technology companies.
Global corporations are increasingly leveraging India’s talent pool through Global Capability Centres (GCCs), which now employ over 5 million people. India hosts around 1,500 GCCs, representing nearly 45 per cent of such centres worldwide. What initially began as a cost-arbitrage model has evolved into a hub for high-quality talent, innovation, and scalable operations, enabling India to emerge as the “office of the world”.
The report highlights that India is well-positioned to move further up the value chain, offering skill-intensive and digitally enabled services. Indian and multinational IT firms are expected to expand higher-value offerings such as consulting, experience design, full-stack digital engineering, Industry 4.0 solutions, and advanced product development. Centres of excellence for cloud computing, analytics, artificial intelligence, and other emerging technologies are increasingly being anchored in India.
Beyond IT, India also has a significant opportunity in non-IT services as developed economies face talent shortages due to ageing populations. Sectors such as healthcare and education are likely to see growing cross-border service delivery through digital platforms, further boosting India’s export potential.
The report also underscores the role of digital infrastructure in driving economic transformation. With 1.2 billion telecom subscribers and 837 million internet users, combined with sustained government investment in Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI), India has laid a strong foundation for a digital economy. This has supported the expansion of digital payments, strengthened governance, and fostered innovation and entrepreneurship.
Between 2014 and 2019, the digital economy grew at 15.6 per cent in absolute dollar terms, more than 2.4 times faster than overall economic growth during the same period, the report noted.
India’s growth trajectory carries global significance, as the country is home to nearly one-sixth of the world’s population. Having become the world’s most populous nation in 2023, India is expected to be the largest contributor to the global workforce for several decades, making its economic performance critical to global growth, the EY report added. (Source: IANS)
