India puts nominal GDP growth at 10 percent for FY 2021

Nirmala Sitharaman
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New Delhi– The government has pegged nominal GDP growth at 10 per cent for FY21 in the Budget presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman here on Saturday.

The Economic Survey 2019-20 presented on Friday estimated economic growth in the range of 6 per cent to 6.5 per cent. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has revised its real gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the year to 5 per cent from 6.1 per cent projected earlier.

The growth in GDP slumped to over six-year low of 5 per cent in the April-June quarter and 4.5 per cent in July-September quarter of 2019, against 7.1 per cent growth in July-September the previous year.

Presenting the Budget for 2020-21, Sitharaman said receipts for 2020-21 are pegged at Rs 22.46 lakh crore while expenditure at Rs 30.42 lakh crore. The revised estimated expenditure for FY20 has been pegged at Rs 26.99 lakh crore and receipts at Rs 19.32 lakh crore, she said.

Net market borrowings would be at Rs 4.99 lakh crore in FY 2019-20 and are estimated at Rs 5.36 lakh crore for the next fiscal. She, however, said the government expected tax buoyancy to take time and the recent cut in corporate tax to cause loss of substantial revenue in the short run, and the economy to reap huge returns in due course.

The Central Statistics Office in its first advanced estimate released in January had put the economic growth for 2019-20 at 5 per cent, slower than the 2018-19 expansion rate of 6.8 per cent. The government estimated that gross value added (GVA), which is GDP minus net taxes, will grow at 4.9 percent in 2019-20.

According to the estimates, farm sector is set to grow at 2.8 per cent against 2.9 per cent last year, at constant or inflation-adjusted prices. The farm sector grew 2.1 per cent in the second quarter of 2019-20, reflecting the very late arrival of monsoon rains last year, affecting sowing in the summer kharif crop, India’s main harvest.

The manufacturing sector, which accounts for about 75 per cent of the country’s factory output, contracted 1 per cent in July-September 2019, broadly echoing that people are putting off purchases on aspirational items such as cars and televisions.

According to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) data, passenger vehicle sales declined 23.7 per cent during July-September.

The International Monetary Fund has revised downward its growth forecast for India to 4.8 per cent from its October projection of 6.1 per cent owing to the crisis in the non-banking financial sector and weak rural demand. It also cut the world’s growth estimate and blamed the slowdown in India for its move. (IANS)


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