Experts on India’s GDP numbers: ‘Worst is not past us’

Subhash Chandra Garg

New Delhi–Despite a slew of government measures aimed at reviving growth, the Indian economy continued its downward trajectory. The Q2 GDP growth fell to its lowest in 6 years, eliciting sharp reactions from the Opposition and experts. What is more worrying is the fact that some experts said the worst may not be past us.

Former Finance Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg said in a tweet the goal of $5 trillion economy seems to be slipping away by at least one year.

Talking to IANS, former Chief Statistician of India, Pronab Sen said the manufacturing showing negative growth is certainly worrying. “I don’t think the growth has bottomed out, the growth figures may continue to decline the next quarter too, however, post fourth quarter may show some recovery owing to the base effect,” Sen said.

On the divergence seen in the stocks markets, currently around record levels, Sen said: “It is essentially in reaction to the corporate tax cut”.

Prof. R. Nagraj of Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai, said: “I don’t see any green shoots in the economy as of now.”

However, N.R. Bhanumurthy, Professor at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy believes that the GDP growth has bottomed out and we may see revival ahead.

“Such low growth figures were not expected. Led by the service sector, we can see a revival in the next quarter”.

Deepthi Mary Mathew, economist at Geojit Financial Services, also said that the GDP growth rate for Q2FY20 was in line with the market expectation at 4.5 per cent. All the indicators ranging from IIP, electricity consumption to core inflation rate were pointing towards the fact that the economy has not entered the revival path.

Sreejith Balasubramanian, Economist-Fund Management, IDFC AMC, noted that “bottoming out could be further down the road and recovery is unlikely to be V-shaped as consumer demand, credit supply and risk appetite remain lacklustre”. (IANS)


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